What the Polls Say—and What I Hear in Connecticut's Communities

After interviewing Senator Ryan Fazio, the Republican candidate for governor, I keep returning to a question: How well do the statewide polling numbers capture the conversations happening in Connecticut's communities?

A Quinnipiac University poll released October 14 showed Governor Ned Lamont receiving 58 percent support and Fazio receiving 38 percent. The survey included 1,225 likely voters interviewed October 8–12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Those numbers show a substantial lead for the governor. Yet in my own conversations, I hear frustration, concern and a desire for change.

Over recent weeks, I have spoken with people connected to communities in Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven and Danbury, especially members of the Latino community. These were personal conversations in restaurants, businesses, gatherings and among friends — not a scientific survey.

The concerns have been consistent: taxes, electricity bills, housing and the overall cost of living. People are asking whether they can afford to stay in Connecticut and what their future here will look like.

Several people have told me they intend to support Fazio. Others have said that learning about his proposals changed their opinion. Some independent voters who told me they had not voted in years now say they plan to participate.

These conversations do not represent every Latino voter or every Connecticut resident. Latino communities include people with different political beliefs, experiences and priorities. But the concerns expressed to me deserve attention.

My interview with Fazio gave him an opportunity to explain his proposals directly to viewers. We discussed affordability, taxes, utility costs, housing and accountability for public spending. My purpose was to give people information they could consider for themselves.

The response has encouraged me. The version with Spanish subtitles received more than 1,000 views within a couple of days. Views do not equal votes, but they show that people are watching and seeking information.

So how should I understand the difference between the poll and what I am hearing?

A statewide poll measures a broader sample. My conversations reflect the people I happen to reach, including those willing to discuss their concerns with me. Both can be accurately described even when they present different impressions.

I cannot conclude from my conversations that the poll is inaccurate or that Fazio will win. What I can report is that I am hearing support for him, including from people who say they previously voted differently or stayed home.

The election will show how widespread that support is and whether those who promise to vote follow through.

Until then, my question remains: Are we listening closely enough to the residents who are worried about affording a future in Connecticut?